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I shared this data in a politics forum and was told that 'the data is racist and cherrypicked'...... but so far, I have seen nothing to overturn your findings. It is NOT racist to post the hard truth. And we should ALL be heartbroken that this is a reality among our black population.

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Mar 12, 2023·edited Mar 12, 2023Author

This is the most common reaction I've received on Twitter (hundreds of times minimum), across the past 6 months I've been disseminating this kind of data.

Wrote a bit about it the other day: https://twitter.com/fentasyl/status/1633715200510644224

tldr:

Seething anger, abject denial, incapability of even processing it.

I suspect it's mostly caused by a combination of:

- decades of false racialist propaganda

- innumeracy & illiteracy from the ongoing failure of public schooling

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Mar 18, 2023·edited Mar 18, 2023

Not surprising at all, whenever you show verified facts from an authoritative source they will counter with unverified emotional claims. It's never a single point of disputed fact or set of facts, it a blind conviction of a lifetime of "set in stone" belief system. To agree that blacks are largely responsible for the majority of the murder rate in America is for them to agree they have been in the wrong (regarding racism) mostly their entire adult lives.

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Directly correlates with the destruction of the black family by the democratic party, later republicans piles on. Read Thomas Sowell on intact black family up to the civil right movement and the social welfare system.

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how did the GOP pile on?

just wondering what I'm missing , thks John.

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A lot of data I stopped reading,

A lot of data that only quantifies what our eyes see daily.

a lot of data that literally proves the black males has some issues to put it mildly

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Scott Adams.

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Walk carefully and carry a .44

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What's the saying: The sins of the father...

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"6.5% of Black Males (15-74) commit murder over the past 60 years, assuming a 1:1 Murderer:Victim ratio, based on 1,084,990 actual murder victims (1968-2021).

Note: section added March 13"

1. There isn't a 1:1 murder:victim rate.

2. I should think most murders are done by men between age 15-40. Certainly past 60 the number is trivial.

3. But most important, are your figures based on the number of black men who ever existed between ages 15-40 (or 15 to 74, take your pick) in the past 60 years? That number is greater than the number of black men between X and X now.

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1. I specifically noted that section is using unrealistic assumptions as a demonstration of the what the numbers would look like with the 1:1 assumption. Many commenters thought the 4.5% number was 1:1.

2. I chose 60 year age range as a surrogate for "lifetime" as it is the best match for the 54 years of CDC data available. This was also to avoid even the appearance of cherry picking.

3. They're based on rates per 100k population per year. This is necessary because population size and composition are dynamic, especially across decades.

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Please accept my apologies for pointing out what you had already noted. It wasn't necessary.

Still....

It's possible to find out how many black men between ages X and X (take your pick) that existed, ever, in those years in the US. IMO that's the best way to avoid the charge of cherrypicking or sleight of hand.

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Do you have a chart of the murder rates prior to '68 on hand? I would have assumed that the Great Society would have caused increases in each cohort concomitant with the rise in out-of-wedlock birthrates for each cohort. Absent fathers are a major predictor of marginal behavior in both children and adults, so I would have assumed rising rates based on that. I was surprised to see the rate dropping. Very curious as to why, and as to rates beforehand.

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This is what the US Government, Wall Street, Media, and Hollywood does not want us to know.

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So looking at your data another way:

For black males:

4.5% of black males will murder in their lifetime, and most murder victims are intraracial, so:

1 / (0.045 x 2 (one murderer & one victim)) = 1 in 11 black males will commit murder or be murdered in their lifetime

Looking at the black male share of violent deaths by cause graph, about 2.5% of the deaths are during legal intervention, so:

1 / (0.045 x 0.025) = 1 in 889 black males will be killed in their lifetime during an legal intervention

For white males:

0.027% of white males will murder in their lifetime, and most murder victims are intraracial, so:

1 / (0.0027 x 2 (one murderer & one victim)) = 1 in 185 white males will commit or be murdered in their lifetime

Looking at the white male share of violent deaths by cause graph, about 1.5% of the deaths are during legal intervention, so:

1 / (0.0027 x 0.015) = 1 in 24,700 white males will be killed in their lifetime during an legal intervention

If my math makes sense, these statistics are quite staggering and in sharp contrast to the public narative

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You have the general idea right, and the rough estimates you've calculated are on the right orders of magnitude.

However, it's not possible to say Murderers and Victims doubles the population level risk:

1. Black Male victimization rate is appreciably lower than their murdering rate

2. Many Black Male murderers get murdered themselves in revenge killings

7.5%, perhaps 8%, is probably a closer estimate circa 2021 if we discount the "murderers who get murdered"

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Startling to see that the truth is much worse than the suspicion.

I would like to see more exploration of the family/father question. One commenter noted Thomas Sowell pointed to the deterioration of the family unit as a corollary. It's frequently mentioned by social conservatives like Ben Shapiro. But you noted a lack of connection there for children born in fatherless homes.

I wonder if there're other ways to search for correlation with the same question in mind. What about degree of familiarity with the father? What about divorce? What about paternal incarceration?

Anyway, thanks for crunching the numbers. Lots to chew on. Truly a tragedy that this reality is ignored or inverted for political convenience at the expense of public safety and a moral society.

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“Inner Citification of Rural America”, on the ground I’ve experienced small historic towns that have been overwhelmed by inner city type crime levels that have followed the arrival of low income housing projects. The local police get overwhelmed, and the long term residents , many multi generational families, don’t know what hit them. And it’s getting worse due to new punitive use of force laws many states are implementing. Cops are encouraged to basically walk away if interventions aren’t “necessary “ which means disorderly conduct, drunkenness, public order aren’t dealt with. A cop could face 10 years in prison if the encounter goes bad,and at some time in the future the actions are found to not be “necessary”. Nobody is gonna risk it. The “reasonable” test set by the USSC is gone. Look for the stats to get much worse.

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Can you share what city and state has the highest concentration of black on white murder? These numbers don't really address that specifically. Statistics can be manipulated to say whatever you want them to say as you know. I find it interesting that we don't have data per state. For instance, Montana has a significantly , almost forgettable black population. Your statistics have almost no meaning to those people in that state.

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Could you inform me of how you came to the numbers in the FBI NIBRS table? I went to the FBI site and they collected NIBRS data on race age and sex but not conjointly. Accordingly I’m not sure how you came to hard stats on rates of homicide by race and sex simultaneously.

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Your study has shown me that there needs to a lot of work to repair race relations in the United States. I really don't know if that can be done, especially in the southern states. It is so easy to get abortions, it is so easy to kill our fellow human beings, it is so easy to blame an object like a firearm, then it is to blame society.

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So, I can safely assume if you average the deaths, that Black males have murdered on average 11,447 people every year for 53 years. 😳

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