US Data on Murderers by Race, Sex and Age in the 2020s. From FBI UCR 2021 (NIBRS), CDC WONDER 2022 NVSS (National Vital Statistics System). Updated Mar 15, 2023
I shared this data in a politics forum and was told that 'the data is racist and cherrypicked'...... but so far, I have seen nothing to overturn your findings. It is NOT racist to post the hard truth. And we should ALL be heartbroken that this is a reality among our black population.
Directly correlates with the destruction of the black family by the democratic party, later republicans piles on. Read Thomas Sowell on intact black family up to the civil right movement and the social welfare system.
"6.5% of Black Males (15-74) commit murder over the past 60 years, assuming a 1:1 Murderer:Victim ratio, based on 1,084,990 actual murder victims (1968-2021).
Note: section added March 13"
1. There isn't a 1:1 murder:victim rate.
2. I should think most murders are done by men between age 15-40. Certainly past 60 the number is trivial.
3. But most important, are your figures based on the number of black men who ever existed between ages 15-40 (or 15 to 74, take your pick) in the past 60 years? That number is greater than the number of black men between X and X now.
Do you have a chart of the murder rates prior to '68 on hand? I would have assumed that the Great Society would have caused increases in each cohort concomitant with the rise in out-of-wedlock birthrates for each cohort. Absent fathers are a major predictor of marginal behavior in both children and adults, so I would have assumed rising rates based on that. I was surprised to see the rate dropping. Very curious as to why, and as to rates beforehand.
Startling to see that the truth is much worse than the suspicion.
I would like to see more exploration of the family/father question. One commenter noted Thomas Sowell pointed to the deterioration of the family unit as a corollary. It's frequently mentioned by social conservatives like Ben Shapiro. But you noted a lack of connection there for children born in fatherless homes.
I wonder if there're other ways to search for correlation with the same question in mind. What about degree of familiarity with the father? What about divorce? What about paternal incarceration?
Anyway, thanks for crunching the numbers. Lots to chew on. Truly a tragedy that this reality is ignored or inverted for political convenience at the expense of public safety and a moral society.
“Inner Citification of Rural America”, on the ground I’ve experienced small historic towns that have been overwhelmed by inner city type crime levels that have followed the arrival of low income housing projects. The local police get overwhelmed, and the long term residents , many multi generational families, don’t know what hit them. And it’s getting worse due to new punitive use of force laws many states are implementing. Cops are encouraged to basically walk away if interventions aren’t “necessary “ which means disorderly conduct, drunkenness, public order aren’t dealt with. A cop could face 10 years in prison if the encounter goes bad,and at some time in the future the actions are found to not be “necessary”. Nobody is gonna risk it. The “reasonable” test set by the USSC is gone. Look for the stats to get much worse.
Can you share what city and state has the highest concentration of black on white murder? These numbers don't really address that specifically. Statistics can be manipulated to say whatever you want them to say as you know. I find it interesting that we don't have data per state. For instance, Montana has a significantly , almost forgettable black population. Your statistics have almost no meaning to those people in that state.
Could you inform me of how you came to the numbers in the FBI NIBRS table? I went to the FBI site and they collected NIBRS data on race age and sex but not conjointly. Accordingly I’m not sure how you came to hard stats on rates of homicide by race and sex simultaneously.
Your study has shown me that there needs to a lot of work to repair race relations in the United States. I really don't know if that can be done, especially in the southern states. It is so easy to get abortions, it is so easy to kill our fellow human beings, it is so easy to blame an object like a firearm, then it is to blame society.
I shared this data in a politics forum and was told that 'the data is racist and cherrypicked'...... but so far, I have seen nothing to overturn your findings. It is NOT racist to post the hard truth. And we should ALL be heartbroken that this is a reality among our black population.
Directly correlates with the destruction of the black family by the democratic party, later republicans piles on. Read Thomas Sowell on intact black family up to the civil right movement and the social welfare system.
A lot of data I stopped reading,
A lot of data that only quantifies what our eyes see daily.
a lot of data that literally proves the black males has some issues to put it mildly
Scott Adams.
Walk carefully and carry a .44
What's the saying: The sins of the father...
"6.5% of Black Males (15-74) commit murder over the past 60 years, assuming a 1:1 Murderer:Victim ratio, based on 1,084,990 actual murder victims (1968-2021).
Note: section added March 13"
1. There isn't a 1:1 murder:victim rate.
2. I should think most murders are done by men between age 15-40. Certainly past 60 the number is trivial.
3. But most important, are your figures based on the number of black men who ever existed between ages 15-40 (or 15 to 74, take your pick) in the past 60 years? That number is greater than the number of black men between X and X now.
Do you have a chart of the murder rates prior to '68 on hand? I would have assumed that the Great Society would have caused increases in each cohort concomitant with the rise in out-of-wedlock birthrates for each cohort. Absent fathers are a major predictor of marginal behavior in both children and adults, so I would have assumed rising rates based on that. I was surprised to see the rate dropping. Very curious as to why, and as to rates beforehand.
This is what the US Government, Wall Street, Media, and Hollywood does not want us to know.
So looking at your data another way:
For black males:
4.5% of black males will murder in their lifetime, and most murder victims are intraracial, so:
1 / (0.045 x 2 (one murderer & one victim)) = 1 in 11 black males will commit murder or be murdered in their lifetime
Looking at the black male share of violent deaths by cause graph, about 2.5% of the deaths are during legal intervention, so:
1 / (0.045 x 0.025) = 1 in 889 black males will be killed in their lifetime during an legal intervention
For white males:
0.027% of white males will murder in their lifetime, and most murder victims are intraracial, so:
1 / (0.0027 x 2 (one murderer & one victim)) = 1 in 185 white males will commit or be murdered in their lifetime
Looking at the white male share of violent deaths by cause graph, about 1.5% of the deaths are during legal intervention, so:
1 / (0.0027 x 0.015) = 1 in 24,700 white males will be killed in their lifetime during an legal intervention
If my math makes sense, these statistics are quite staggering and in sharp contrast to the public narative
Startling to see that the truth is much worse than the suspicion.
I would like to see more exploration of the family/father question. One commenter noted Thomas Sowell pointed to the deterioration of the family unit as a corollary. It's frequently mentioned by social conservatives like Ben Shapiro. But you noted a lack of connection there for children born in fatherless homes.
I wonder if there're other ways to search for correlation with the same question in mind. What about degree of familiarity with the father? What about divorce? What about paternal incarceration?
Anyway, thanks for crunching the numbers. Lots to chew on. Truly a tragedy that this reality is ignored or inverted for political convenience at the expense of public safety and a moral society.
“Inner Citification of Rural America”, on the ground I’ve experienced small historic towns that have been overwhelmed by inner city type crime levels that have followed the arrival of low income housing projects. The local police get overwhelmed, and the long term residents , many multi generational families, don’t know what hit them. And it’s getting worse due to new punitive use of force laws many states are implementing. Cops are encouraged to basically walk away if interventions aren’t “necessary “ which means disorderly conduct, drunkenness, public order aren’t dealt with. A cop could face 10 years in prison if the encounter goes bad,and at some time in the future the actions are found to not be “necessary”. Nobody is gonna risk it. The “reasonable” test set by the USSC is gone. Look for the stats to get much worse.
Can you share what city and state has the highest concentration of black on white murder? These numbers don't really address that specifically. Statistics can be manipulated to say whatever you want them to say as you know. I find it interesting that we don't have data per state. For instance, Montana has a significantly , almost forgettable black population. Your statistics have almost no meaning to those people in that state.
Could you inform me of how you came to the numbers in the FBI NIBRS table? I went to the FBI site and they collected NIBRS data on race age and sex but not conjointly. Accordingly I’m not sure how you came to hard stats on rates of homicide by race and sex simultaneously.
Your study has shown me that there needs to a lot of work to repair race relations in the United States. I really don't know if that can be done, especially in the southern states. It is so easy to get abortions, it is so easy to kill our fellow human beings, it is so easy to blame an object like a firearm, then it is to blame society.
So, I can safely assume if you average the deaths, that Black males have murdered on average 11,447 people every year for 53 years. 😳