Blacks are 9.8x more likely to commit Inter-Racial Murder than Whites. It could be much higher. Estimating the burden of Inter-Racial Murders with data from FBI UCR 2021 (NIBRS) & CDC WONDER 2022 NVSS
If history since 1968 is anything like it has been for the last decade or so, most white on black "murders" are probably just self-defense cases where the white man was railroaded by a Bronx jury - like what happened to Derek Chauvin and the McMichaels. And it damn sure wasn't anywhere close to 200k.
In what the late Saddam Hussein once dubbed “the great Satan,” roughly two-thirds of the United States enlisted military corps is white . . .
The fat, bulbous U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin once confirmed in a 93-2 vote of the U.S. Senate, immediately embarked on a whirlwind media tour of duty, telling the pseudo-secular sycophants in the state-controlled tabloid press and state-controlled television talk show circuit about how the U.S. Army is full of bad racist white men.
And now the U.S. Army is doing ads begging for more young white males? What happened?
Even with a full-on declaration of war from Congress, and even if Gavin Newsome could be cheated into the Oval Office by ZOG somehow, with Globohomo diversity brigades going door-to-door looking to impress American children into military service, they will be met with armed, well-trained opposition, the invasion at the Southern border is going full tilt, and the drugs are flowing in like never before . . .
Get ready for it . . . the fat old devil worshipping fags on Capitol Hill, on Wall Street, in Whitehall, and in Brussels are in no shape to fight a war themselves, and most Americans are armed to the teeth with their own guns . . .
“People like you” whoa Gerry. Yea they basically sainted a deadbeat fentanyl addict for overdosing while being arrested so if the data went the other way we’d never hear the end of it. I’m just saying us whites have more pressing problems than violent blacks killing us. Interesting nonetheless
And I'm just saying the media has waged psychological warfare on white people for decades by misrepresenting realities like the above inter-racial murder rate. You focus on the health crisis and I'll call out the bullsh-t K?
1. For interracial ratio's, you use the NIBRS, which according to your Twitter thread is a lot more skewed than larger FBI data, both with the Hispanic+White categorization issue showing a roughly 3:1. (Something like 28% vs 10% for whites and blacks respectively for victimization) Further, the NIBRS has weaker national coverage than the later, doesn't? So I can't shake the feel that the FBI is closer to the actual ratio. For example, inquisitive Bird used offender data for a similar questions a month or so back and used FBI crosstabs instead.
Not saying the typical FBI supp. Is sufficient in terms of absolute numbers, common knowledge due department reporting gaps and unsolved cases , but using data on unsolved cases and Cooper's 2008 algorithm, this average of around 1300 annually, rather than 1800, was developed by this guy.
Further, there becomes a smaller disparity, with the ratio being closer to 2:1 than 3:1, though the FBI data fluctuates between the two depending on the year.
2. I really find your baseline of a hypothetical integrated population where black and white victims have the same rate of murder by blacks despite a stranger-nonstranger effect still likely influencing homicide patterns.
More pressingly, Integration fueled by blockbusting and public housing expansion was more disruptive to the status quo (that is the baseline mobility of lower class blacks) than White flight (which if anything maintained such dissimilarity). So while mathematically plausible, your framing of such a scenario in the same light like Murder rates sans medical advancements is misleading. I am mainly focusing on Northern dynamics here, as in the South patterns of segregation by dissimilarity indexes are a different matter for cities, plus the available space for blacks to be concentrated.
2. Not sure why, given the short duration in most places of maintained segregation in this period, that the 70s-80s would be underestimated. Honestly could be missing something here.
3. The whole "reversion to the mean" point I have partial issue with. While pandemic conditions would match 20th century levels, the simple fact is that fluctuations seen in pre-Floyd disruptions like the Ferguson era still dissipated according to the data. Unless there was some sort of institutional resurgence I am unaware of, what the relavant mean to expect is still a debateable here.
The real question is this just another spike that happened to be more severe given the more unusual demographic conditions, or is this long term?
Wanted to clarify that I don't think the NIBRS does a worse job at parsing whites and Hispanics compared to the FBI supp, just that both infact have that confound.
1. This is the NIBRS Estimation data, within which the DOJ statisticians provide projections to fill in the missing 1/3 of data (my calculations use their estimates). I'd expect the specific missing States/Counties to possibly cause an underestimate of Black offending rates (but it's hard to really say).
2. That hypothetical integration is just to demonstrate by example how population effects actually work, because many commenters desperately reach for them to explain away the observed murder differential. I don't "believe" it.
3. I use "reversion to the mean" in the mathematical sense, with no narrative speculations intended.
The mean murder rate from 1960-2021 is 7.0/100k.
The murder rate in 2021 is 6.9/100k.
(Ranging from 4.44 in 2014 and 10.22 in 1980)
See this tweet for the historical numbers (this thread of threads also contains a lot of other info that may be of interest if you scroll up):
1. I find the robustness of the 2021 data better than I had thought, but due to racial lumping I am weary of using this for historical purposes, particularly given the disparity I see in the other analysis I linked to.
2. Got it.
3. Familiar with 20th century data, and mathematically I never disagreed.
Whites should be a distinct category. If they can't make them all distinct, put hispanics with blacks at least, and then we can see what the real ratios are.
Excellent work. I have been aware of this data for many years - I've always been skeptical of the FBI dataset - Single-offender, single victim reporting is suspect...and the latino-white conflation for offenders, but not victims. Your concise analysis of the buried trends within it is appreciated.
1) You briefly touched on the question of how to apportion unsolved homicides. It could be interesting to develop a model for this - perhaps based on the relative proportions of cold cases since solved via DNA evidence, though this variable may vary over time.
2)The issue of spatial heterogeneity of black and white populations and rates of interracial crime is a tough one. The 'all blacks live near whites but most whites do not live near blacks' creates a denominator problem. Localized analysis might be necessary . The gap is no doubt large.
3) I assume that you are familiar with the NCVS dataset. It undoubtedly gives a more accurate picture of violent crime than the arrest and conviction data, but by it's very nature is useless for homicide. It might be useful to derive a multivariate correlation between the NCVS data and the FBI violent crime data , and use this correlation to estimate the relative under-reporting of violent crime, and use this to estimate the black-white contribution to the unknown offender' homicides. I suspect that a greater proportion of black-offender homicides go unsolved given the witness noncooperation and Bronx-jury effects. Does this proportion vary based on the race of the victim?
4) Interracial rape. Obama's DOJ stopped publishing this data back in '08, for obvious reasons (the infamous 20,000:1 differential). (it was part of the NCVS dataset, but was never re-published) Accurate numbers are difficult to find. The salience of this topic is....obvious? Inquiring minds want to know.
If the basal murder rates were equal, you would expect a per capita interracial murder rate equal to the population ratio, but wouldn’t the victimization ratio be reversed and thus cancel out?
Dividing these gets you %B/%W — the opposite of the murder rate ratio assuming R is equal. Just checking that the 6x figure is just referring to the murder rate and not the adjusted figure with victimization included.
Buddy, if people think it’s bad now, wait, watch, flee cities; survive: Defund the police has been abandoned in favor of new punitive laws meant to hamstring police. CA and now MD and others have instituted new use of force laws that have abandoned the reasonableness test in favor of “necessary “ without defining it or who or when “necessary” would be determined. The law comes with a threat of ten years in prison and sets up a labyrinth of review boards. The effect is to end proactive policing. It is happening now, it is obvious, and there will be a whirlwind to reap.
Steve Sailer compares blacks to nonblacks, as hispanics have historically been lumped in with whites. He comes up in the same ballpark as you with a 9.2:1 ratio: https://www.takimag.com/article/who-needs-facts/
If whites were separated from other nonblacks, I guesstimate that it would be in the neighborhood of 12:1 or even higher.
Hey DataHazard, you should to a statistic on how cops are more likely to shoot white people than black people. Roland Fryer, a black harvard university professor, assumed that blacks were discriminated against but then did a study and found the opposite: : “Blacks are 23.5 percent less likely to be shot by police, relative to whites, in an interaction” To explain this, the conclusion made is that “cops are more hesitant to shoot a black person because of the perceive media attention”. You can view Larry Elder explain here: https://youtu.be/1xoDvfJK5yE?t=246 I rely on stats and facts
200,000 since 1968 id say whites have more pressing problems like hypertension and fentanyl.
If it was 200,000 blacks murdered by whites since 1968, the media and people like you would never let us hear the end of it
If history since 1968 is anything like it has been for the last decade or so, most white on black "murders" are probably just self-defense cases where the white man was railroaded by a Bronx jury - like what happened to Derek Chauvin and the McMichaels. And it damn sure wasn't anywhere close to 200k.
In what the late Saddam Hussein once dubbed “the great Satan,” roughly two-thirds of the United States enlisted military corps is white . . .
The fat, bulbous U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin once confirmed in a 93-2 vote of the U.S. Senate, immediately embarked on a whirlwind media tour of duty, telling the pseudo-secular sycophants in the state-controlled tabloid press and state-controlled television talk show circuit about how the U.S. Army is full of bad racist white men.
And now the U.S. Army is doing ads begging for more young white males? What happened?
Even with a full-on declaration of war from Congress, and even if Gavin Newsome could be cheated into the Oval Office by ZOG somehow, with Globohomo diversity brigades going door-to-door looking to impress American children into military service, they will be met with armed, well-trained opposition, the invasion at the Southern border is going full tilt, and the drugs are flowing in like never before . . .
Get ready for it . . . the fat old devil worshipping fags on Capitol Hill, on Wall Street, in Whitehall, and in Brussels are in no shape to fight a war themselves, and most Americans are armed to the teeth with their own guns . . .
https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/satanism-is-a-jewish-cult
Where's the lie in what he stated.
True, but the response was funny….and correct.
What's correct about it? You'd be crying your eyes out if 200,000 blacks were murdered by whites
Yea, cause they matter and you don't. I'm glad they died and my only regret is that it wasn't 500,000
Of course, they matter you don't
Lucky for the country, you murder & abort yourselves at a tremendous rate.
And yet we still stable unlike you
“People like you” whoa Gerry. Yea they basically sainted a deadbeat fentanyl addict for overdosing while being arrested so if the data went the other way we’d never hear the end of it. I’m just saying us whites have more pressing problems than violent blacks killing us. Interesting nonetheless
And I'm just saying the media has waged psychological warfare on white people for decades by misrepresenting realities like the above inter-racial murder rate. You focus on the health crisis and I'll call out the bullsh-t K?
I think this is the way how it is going:
Media: blacks are being victimized by whites; so then riots break out and this destroys billions of dollars of property. And lives are lost.
Us: No, this is not the case; as a matter of fact; it is the other way around if you look at the data. And whites are the ones being victimized.
Media: you are racist for saying that
Us: We are just trying to clear things up!!!!!
And we should tell the media that they are being racist towards white people for this but for some reason it is ok to be racist towards whites today.
Yes, Fuck White people.
Okay, so I have few issues with the analysis.
1. For interracial ratio's, you use the NIBRS, which according to your Twitter thread is a lot more skewed than larger FBI data, both with the Hispanic+White categorization issue showing a roughly 3:1. (Something like 28% vs 10% for whites and blacks respectively for victimization) Further, the NIBRS has weaker national coverage than the later, doesn't? So I can't shake the feel that the FBI is closer to the actual ratio. For example, inquisitive Bird used offender data for a similar questions a month or so back and used FBI crosstabs instead.
Not saying the typical FBI supp. Is sufficient in terms of absolute numbers, common knowledge due department reporting gaps and unsolved cases , but using data on unsolved cases and Cooper's 2008 algorithm, this average of around 1300 annually, rather than 1800, was developed by this guy.
https://www.justfacts.com/racialissues.asp
Further, there becomes a smaller disparity, with the ratio being closer to 2:1 than 3:1, though the FBI data fluctuates between the two depending on the year.
2. I really find your baseline of a hypothetical integrated population where black and white victims have the same rate of murder by blacks despite a stranger-nonstranger effect still likely influencing homicide patterns.
More pressingly, Integration fueled by blockbusting and public housing expansion was more disruptive to the status quo (that is the baseline mobility of lower class blacks) than White flight (which if anything maintained such dissimilarity). So while mathematically plausible, your framing of such a scenario in the same light like Murder rates sans medical advancements is misleading. I am mainly focusing on Northern dynamics here, as in the South patterns of segregation by dissimilarity indexes are a different matter for cities, plus the available space for blacks to be concentrated.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-economic-history/article/national-rise-in-residential-segregation/C6CDA8CE8E2A0F2523EAE4C7BACB8E2A
https://www.jstor.org/stable/26332180?seq=3
2. Not sure why, given the short duration in most places of maintained segregation in this period, that the 70s-80s would be underestimated. Honestly could be missing something here.
3. The whole "reversion to the mean" point I have partial issue with. While pandemic conditions would match 20th century levels, the simple fact is that fluctuations seen in pre-Floyd disruptions like the Ferguson era still dissipated according to the data. Unless there was some sort of institutional resurgence I am unaware of, what the relavant mean to expect is still a debateable here.
The real question is this just another spike that happened to be more severe given the more unusual demographic conditions, or is this long term?
Wanted to clarify that I don't think the NIBRS does a worse job at parsing whites and Hispanics compared to the FBI supp, just that both infact have that confound.
1. This is the NIBRS Estimation data, within which the DOJ statisticians provide projections to fill in the missing 1/3 of data (my calculations use their estimates). I'd expect the specific missing States/Counties to possibly cause an underestimate of Black offending rates (but it's hard to really say).
2. That hypothetical integration is just to demonstrate by example how population effects actually work, because many commenters desperately reach for them to explain away the observed murder differential. I don't "believe" it.
3. I use "reversion to the mean" in the mathematical sense, with no narrative speculations intended.
The mean murder rate from 1960-2021 is 7.0/100k.
The murder rate in 2021 is 6.9/100k.
(Ranging from 4.44 in 2014 and 10.22 in 1980)
See this tweet for the historical numbers (this thread of threads also contains a lot of other info that may be of interest if you scroll up):
https://twitter.com/fentasyl/status/1629923345381695489
1. I find the robustness of the 2021 data better than I had thought, but due to racial lumping I am weary of using this for historical purposes, particularly given the disparity I see in the other analysis I linked to.
2. Got it.
3. Familiar with 20th century data, and mathematically I never disagreed.
You have good information here. BTW...
Whites should be a distinct category. If they can't make them all distinct, put hispanics with blacks at least, and then we can see what the real ratios are.
Excellent work. I have been aware of this data for many years - I've always been skeptical of the FBI dataset - Single-offender, single victim reporting is suspect...and the latino-white conflation for offenders, but not victims. Your concise analysis of the buried trends within it is appreciated.
1) You briefly touched on the question of how to apportion unsolved homicides. It could be interesting to develop a model for this - perhaps based on the relative proportions of cold cases since solved via DNA evidence, though this variable may vary over time.
2)The issue of spatial heterogeneity of black and white populations and rates of interracial crime is a tough one. The 'all blacks live near whites but most whites do not live near blacks' creates a denominator problem. Localized analysis might be necessary . The gap is no doubt large.
3) I assume that you are familiar with the NCVS dataset. It undoubtedly gives a more accurate picture of violent crime than the arrest and conviction data, but by it's very nature is useless for homicide. It might be useful to derive a multivariate correlation between the NCVS data and the FBI violent crime data , and use this correlation to estimate the relative under-reporting of violent crime, and use this to estimate the black-white contribution to the unknown offender' homicides. I suspect that a greater proportion of black-offender homicides go unsolved given the witness noncooperation and Bronx-jury effects. Does this proportion vary based on the race of the victim?
4) Interracial rape. Obama's DOJ stopped publishing this data back in '08, for obvious reasons (the infamous 20,000:1 differential). (it was part of the NCVS dataset, but was never re-published) Accurate numbers are difficult to find. The salience of this topic is....obvious? Inquiring minds want to know.
If the basal murder rates were equal, you would expect a per capita interracial murder rate equal to the population ratio, but wouldn’t the victimization ratio be reversed and thus cancel out?
B/W victimization rate assuming equal murder rate:
B rate = [(R) (White pop) (%Black)] / Black pop
W rate = [(R) (Black pop) (%White)]/ White pop
Dividing these gets you %B/%W — the opposite of the murder rate ratio assuming R is equal. Just checking that the 6x figure is just referring to the murder rate and not the adjusted figure with victimization included.
Yes. This is why I included both Victimization & Offending in the population effects example.
6x higher inter-racial victimization rate + 6x higher inter-racial offending rate = 1x number of net inter-racial murders
I could have included the White calculations -- they say the same thing -- which would have been:
1/6x I-R victimization + 1/6x I-R offending = 1x net
Buddy, if people think it’s bad now, wait, watch, flee cities; survive: Defund the police has been abandoned in favor of new punitive laws meant to hamstring police. CA and now MD and others have instituted new use of force laws that have abandoned the reasonableness test in favor of “necessary “ without defining it or who or when “necessary” would be determined. The law comes with a threat of ten years in prison and sets up a labyrinth of review boards. The effect is to end proactive policing. It is happening now, it is obvious, and there will be a whirlwind to reap.
Steve Sailer compares blacks to nonblacks, as hispanics have historically been lumped in with whites. He comes up in the same ballpark as you with a 9.2:1 ratio: https://www.takimag.com/article/who-needs-facts/
If whites were separated from other nonblacks, I guesstimate that it would be in the neighborhood of 12:1 or even higher.
Dang I’m so glad this is finally getting put out there
Hey DataHazard, you should to a statistic on how cops are more likely to shoot white people than black people. Roland Fryer, a black harvard university professor, assumed that blacks were discriminated against but then did a study and found the opposite: : “Blacks are 23.5 percent less likely to be shot by police, relative to whites, in an interaction” To explain this, the conclusion made is that “cops are more hesitant to shoot a black person because of the perceive media attention”. You can view Larry Elder explain here: https://youtu.be/1xoDvfJK5yE?t=246 I rely on stats and facts
Opinions?
bitch
Poor data journalism here, see https://twitter.com/kareem_carr/status/1771906172762607647
Excellent analysis