The 9.3x Factor; Data Isn't Hate Speech
Nationwide, a Black person is 9.3x more likely to murder a White than a White person is to murder a Black. Someone at Twitter adjudicated this fact as "hateful conduct"
Journos have been furiously spinning in the wake of Elon Musk’s recent engagement with the unpopular areas of research I focus on.
One particularly repugnant rat, who has a long history of profiting off his anti-White hate screeds, published a misleading representation of interracial murder statistics using an incorrect set of data. I suspect Noah Journo found one of the FBIs published “single-victim single-offender” datasets that I detailed in my previous article.
As a Civil Rights Activist, I can’t resist the opportunity to call a rat a rat, and doubly so when I can do it with cold hard data. So I decided to put together the complete and true story in a couple charts and a couple tweets.
These data and analyses are usually posted on Twitter first. You can find and follow my locked account @fentasyl.
Lying with Rates
The calculation he used above is the “Victimization Rate” which is the “Number of Murder Victims per 100,000 Members of a Group.” Within a homogenous population, this number is coherent. But comparing two different sized populations, with very different locations of residence, leads to laughably incoherent conclusions like the lies peddled above. Everyone knows this intuitively.
For every Black-on-White murder in Baltimore, he’s dividing by the population of every 100% White suburb in the country. He’s including Whites who have intentionally segregated themselves away from Blacks in the denominator.
If calculated correctly, using the correct dataset, this number can achieve usefulness as high as: “Technically True but Meaningless.” It is about as meaningful as saying “If you divide Baltimore Murders by the Population of the Earth, they are a rounding error.”
I’ve covered this exact subject in some depth in my previous article and in various Twitter threads.
Murder Rate? Stereotype Rate?
I decided to debunk the Journo’s lies with the complete story. To do this requires including not only the “Victimization Rate” described above, but also the “Murder Rate” which is “Number of Murders Committed per 100,000 Members of a Group.”
This is the number of Black-on-White Murders per Black population. It should be obvious why this is a more meaningful rate to consider. This tells us how likely it is for a Black person to murder a White person. I call this the “Stereotype Rate” because it’s the number that a person would consider when walking down the street and coming into contact with others.
The Reality
I must reiterate: these national numbers kind of hide the reality on the ground on both sides of the equation. The nationwide Black-on-White Murder Rate is 9.3x higher than the White-on-Black Murder Rate, but as you get more granular into highly urbanized areas, it can be well over 20x. For most recent years in Washington DC it is incalculable, because there are often zero White-on-Black murders in DC.
The Data
Below is the verbatim text called “hateful conduct” by Twitter.
Blacks murder Whites at 4.9x the rate Whites murder Blacks (non-Hispanic)
A Black person is 9.3x more likely to murder a White than a White person is to murder a Black
Blacks murder Hispanics at 3.5x the rate Hispanics murder Blacks
A Black person is 2.8x more likely to murder a Hispanic than a Hispanic person is to murder a Black
What Next?
Hopefully this was simply a mistake by a rogue Twitter jannie and doesn’t represent a return to the previous censorious regime…
That’s all folks. Thanks for reading.
Follow my currently locked account on Twitter @fentasyl.
Check out my previous article for a much more complete treatment of this topic:
Can you do a breakdown by age? I think that would give a real idea of the disparity, assuming there is one. Average black age is 28 or something similar, average white age is 58.
Great work but IMO you need to dumb it down with analogies to a level that the absolute imbeciles on Twitter can understand.
i.e.
You put 5 pit bulls and 100 chihuahuas in a room, and the pit bulls kill 15 chihuahuas (average of 3 killed by each pit bull) but the chihuahuas manage to kill a single pit bull (average of 1/100 pit bull killed by each chihuahua.
Based on common sense which is more meaningful:
1) It's dangerous to be a pit bull, because pit bulls are more likely to be killed by chihuahuas than chihuahuas are to be killed by pit bulls
2) Pit bulls are more dangerous, because they are more likely to kill chihuahuas than chihuahuas are likely to kill pit bulls